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美國國家地理新聞網:近一年之前,科研論文曾警告中國
作者:lijingfj 提交日期:2008-5-21 15:52:00 正常 | 分类: | 访问量:1574

  Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago
  近一年之前,科研論文曾警告中國有地震之風險
  
  Kevin Holden Platt in Beijing
  for National Geographic News
  May 16, 2008
  
  Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake.
  5月12日,強震重創中國四川省北川縣之前十個月,一份科研論文曾警告該地區發生大地震之條件已成熟。
  
  After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning.
  檢視超過十年的當地衛星圖像,並處理深層活躍斷層的現場調查數據之後,科學家提出了這一警告。
  
  "The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics.
  中國、歐洲及美國的地球科學家在2007年7月中旬《構造地質學》(Tectonics)期刊中寫道:“斷層長度足以促成一次強大的淺層地震,使這些斷層成為地區地震威脅的潛在關鍵來源。”
  
  They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an explosion of seismic energy.
  他們曾推斷,地殼構造衝撞力在北川地區成長,正準備以地震能力爆發之形式突然出現。
  
  With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake.
  有著精確與如今看來似乎可怕的遠見,研究者用多種色彩繪製了北川活躍斷層圖,而這一地區成了最近這次地震的震中地帶。
  
  "As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee.
  田納西州孟菲斯大學地震研究與信息中心的邁克爾•埃利斯(Michael Ellis)是該篇論文的合著者,他說:“盡我所知,這是對於這些活躍斷層的唯一研究論文。”
  
  The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 almost entirely leveled parts of Sichuan Province. Chinese officials today estimated that the death toll would reach 50,000 and that nearly five million people are homeless.
  5月12日震級7.9的地震(已上修為8級)幾乎將四川省多處夷為平地。中國官方今天估計,罹難人數將達50,000,並有近五百萬人無家可歸。
  
  
  "Locked in a Journal"
  “鎖於期刊之內”
  
  There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.
  "We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal."
  沒什麼理由認為中國政府注意到這份2007年七月的報告,倘若已知悉,中國政府所為將大不一樣。埃利斯說:“我們確實辨識了這些活躍斷層的潛勢,但這些信息都被有效地鎖於一本學術期刊之內置之不理。”
  
  Ellis hopes that replacing the collapsed buildings with earthquake-proof structures could prevent future tragedies.
  埃利斯希望,重建採用抗震結構的樓房以取代倒塌的那些可以避免未來的悲劇。
  
  "I've been to these little towns [before the quake]," Ellis said. "Most of the houses are built of unreinforced masonry, and you can see little brick factories all around this area.
  埃利斯說:“(地震之前)我去過這些小城鎮。”大多數房子用不加固的石工技術建造,並且,你能看到這一地區周邊的小磚廠。
  
  "It is more expensive to build earthquake-proof structures," he added. And the vast majority of people in Sichuan Province are anything but rich.
  他補充道:“建抗震結構的房屋更昂貴。”而絕大多數四川人並不富裕。
  
  
  The Science Behind the Quake
  地震背後之科學
  
  Earthquake activity is nothing new in Beichuan.
  在四川,地震活動並不新鮮。
  
  "We have shown evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes along the Beichuan fault since 12,000-13,000 years ago," Ellis and colleagues reported last summer.
  去年夏天,埃利斯與同事報告說:“我們已出示的證據顯示自12,000~13,000年前起沿北川斷層就有表面斷裂地震。”
  
  Speaking with National Geographic News, Ellis said, "Ultimately, the [2008] earthquake is related to the continuing and inexorable collision of India with Asia, which is occurring at a rate of about 20 to 22 milimeters [just under an inch] per year."
  與國家地理新聞對話時,埃利斯說:“最根本的,印度板塊與亞洲板塊的碰撞持續不斷且不可抗拒,以每年20至22毫米(恰低於一英寸)的速度發生,(2008年的)地震與此相關。”
  
  This collision started more than 50 million years ago, when the tectonic plate beneath India crashed into the Eurasian plate. (Watch how the plates slammed into each other.)
  這一碰撞開始於5億多年之前,當時印度之下的構造板塊衝撞入歐亞板塊。(略)
  
  "The Himalayas and all of Tibet was created by this collision," Ellis added.
  埃利斯補充說:“喜馬拉雅山脈與整個西藏即通過這一碰撞造就出來。”
  
  As the Indian plate continues its slow-motion crash into Asia—sometimes in jerks marked by earthquakes—it is pushing the entire Tibetan Plateau northward.
  隨著印度板塊繼續緩慢衝撞亞洲板塊,有時撞擊猛烈,以地震為標誌,這使整個西藏高原往北推移。
  
  "This earthquake was the Tibetan mountains moving east over the plains of Chengdu [the capital of Sichuan Province]," said Roger Bilham, a geoscientist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the July 2007 study.
  科羅拉多大學的地球科學家羅傑•比爾漢未參與2007年7月的論文,他說:“這次地震,是成都(四川省會)平原上方的西藏山脈東移造成的。”
  
  
  Not Just Sichuan's Problem
  不止是四川的問題
  
  Study co-author Ellis said that, as the Tibetan Plateau moves northward, "the interior parts of Tibet are collapsing, rather like a soufflé taken out of the oven into cold air."
  論文合著者埃利斯說,隨著西藏高原北移,“西藏板塊內部正在分裂,一如蛋奶酥出爐置於冷空氣中。”
  
  Faults along the southern, Himalayan edge of Tibet present hazards as great as those underlying the Sichuan temblor, Ellis said.
  埃利斯說,沿西藏南部喜馬拉雅山脈邊緣的斷層顯示出的危險與潛在於四川地震的危險等量齊觀。
  
  "Risk associated with the loss of collateral and lives is very high along the Himalaya, because so many people live there or immediately downstream," Ellis added.
  埃利斯補充說:“沿喜馬拉雅山脈,與傷亡相關的風險非常之高,由於當地或山麓住民甚眾。”
  
  "The risk is similarly high in Sichuan [to the east], because of the population and, like India and Nepal, the relatively poor building standards," he said.
  他說:“類似的,四川(往東的方向)受損風險也很高,由於當地人口較多,亦如印度與尼泊爾,建築質量水準較低。”
  
  And as India continues to pound into Tibet, "it is still creating new fault lines"—and new dangers.
  隨著印度板塊持續撞入西藏板塊,“仍在製造新的斷層線”,因此,新地震的危險也在孕育。
  
  分析圖
  
  A map included in a July 2007 study shows active fault lines in the region where a devastating earthquake struck China's Sichuan Province on May 12, 2008. In the study, researchers warned—with what now seems like eerie foresight—that the Beichuan region was ripe for a major quake.
  刊於2007年7月論文中的一幅地圖顯示了中國四川省的活躍斷層線,破壞性地震在5月12日重創該地區。論文中,研究者曾警告,北川地區已有了發生大地震的成熟條件,現在看來,這似乎像是可怕的遠見。
  

#日志日期:2008-5-21 星期三(Wednesday) 晴 复制链接 举报

评论人:lijingfj 评论日期:2008-5-21 15:56
原文鏈接:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html

评论人:lijingfj 评论日期:2008-5-21 15:57
建議國家地震局以後訂閱Tectonics,以資參考

评论人:暮鴉 评论日期:2008-5-22 0:45
甚麼都不說了。

這類關鍵刊物,我相信都要訂的。視而不見,怕也不是一般專家能幹的事情。大多數的專家,還是幹正事的。但拍板,可就難說是誰了。

评论人:fjlijing 评论日期:2008-5-22 2:06
論文上的結論算是嚴肅的學術成果,可惜被官方忽略了

如果有預警,雖然無法預測地震的確切時間,至少可以撥出一筆專款,用於加固或改造當地的建築物,尤其是學校、醫院等人口密集的公共建築物與部分民房,以備抗震之需吧

可惜,這麼關鍵的資訊被忽略了……


评论人:暮鴉1 评论日期:2008-5-25 4:33
评论人:fjlijing

老兄說的,就是我說的預警機制!

自人類學會了收藏糧食,這法子其實早就懂了。豐年藏糧以備荒年。



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