《五分钟投资》Ch2.1错误#1:在买入之前没有退出计划
《五分钟投资》Ch2.1错误#1:在买入之前没有退出计划

作者:小马过壑 提交日期:2007-12-3 9:09:00
Chapter 2: Things to Avoid
第二章:要避免的错误
Building upon the last chapter, we are now ready to explore and face the mistakes that nearly every beginning investor makes. Do not skip over this or any other part of the book because you need to be aware of these mistakes. Otherwise, you may spend years learning these lessons the hard way. Practicing these errors versus not practicing them makes a very large difference in your rate of return, not just a small difference. Generally, in fact, it will make the difference between a large positive rate of return and a large negative rate of return.
在上一章的基础上,我们现在准备看看几乎所有入门投资者都会犯的错误。请不要跳过这部分或本书的任何其他部分,因为你需要注意这些错误,否则,你将花好几年以一种艰难的方式来学习这些课程。实践这些错误和不实践它们在回报率上相差很大,而不是一点点。一般来说,事实上,这些差别就是高的正回报率和高的负回报率之间的差别。
Obviously, there is a relationship between the investor myths of the last chapter and the errors reviewed here. Each of these mistakes is traceable to the myths. As was said earlier in the book, if you are to change your investment results, you must first change your thinking. If you have read and understood what's been written so far, you are well on your way to doing this.
显然,上一章提到的投资者谬论和这里叙述的错误间有联系,这里的每个错误在谬论中都有迹可循。就像本书早些时候提到的,如果你想改变投资结果,首先要改变投资思想。如果你阅读并懂得了到目前为止本书所写的,你已经开始上路了。
Mistake #1: Not having an exit plan before buying
错误#1:在买入之前没有退出计划
No matter how well or poorly founded, every stock selection strategy produces both losers and winners. In the case of both losers and winners, the reason for selling a stock is always the same: To preserve capital and allow you to re-deploy it to more profitable investments. The relevant question is, "how to determine the right time to sell?"
无论建立的基础是好是坏,每一种选股策略下都有输家和赢家。不管赢家和输家,卖出股票的理由都是一样的:保住资本并使你能够把资本重新分配到更有利润的投资上。相应的问题是:怎样确定合适的卖出时间?
The time when you can think most clearly about why you would eventually sell a stock is before it is purchased. Before you buy anything, you have no emotional attachment to it, which means you can make totally rational decisions. Once you own something, you tend to get either greedy or scared. These emotions lead to a desire to preserve profits, leading to prematurely cutting off an ascending price trend.
你能最清楚地考虑你最后为什么要卖出股票的时机是在买入之前。在买入之前,你没有掺杂任何感情,这样就能做出完全理性的决定。一旦你买入了,你要么变得贪婪,要么恐惧。这些情感因素往往导致希望保存收益的心愿,以致在股价上涨时过早地平仓。
How not having an exit plan hurts your performance
没有退出计划影响你的成绩
Big losses are one thing which destroys most investor's performance, and these are almost always a direct result of the investor failing to plan, before entering a trade, how he will exit it. Since the potential gains from a stock are always higher than the potential losses (100% loss potential versus unlimited upside potential), an even bigger source of under-performance is selling too soon when you do find a great winner.
大的损失是影响大多数投资者成绩的因素之一,而这些损失通常是投资者介入交易前缺乏退出计划的直接结果。由于股票潜在收益通常比潜在损失(100%的损失VS无限的上升潜力)大,所以表现差的一个更大的因素是你确实找到了牛股,但卖出太早。
An exit plan is one thing that experienced investors/traders always have before initiating a position. The reason is simple: you must have a plan and stick to it, or else every decision you make will be emotional, not rational. Worse yet, the larger the position is, the less rational your decision-making will be. Therefore it is vital to make all decisions up front, before you are scared (if the position happens to go down), or greedy (if it soars). Emotional decisions almost always are poor ones, leading to large losses and small gains.
退出计划是有经验的投资者/交易员在持有仓位前始终都有的。理由很简单:你必须有个计划并坚持计划,否则所有做出的决定都将是感情用事,而不理性。更糟的是,仓位越重,你决定时会越少理性。所以在你恐惧(如果资产下跌),或贪婪(如果资产大涨)前做好所有决定是非常重要的。情绪化的决定大多数总是拙劣的,这将导致大的损失或少的收益。
The pitfalls of trying to manage a stock portfolio without a plan are many and varied. The advice of friends, stockbrokers, market advisors, and the like are all likely to have a magnifying effect on the natural elements of fear and greed that are present in every investor. These influences can cause someone who does not have a well-thought-out plan to abandon profitable positions and hang on to losing ones. This is exactly why the majority of amateur investors under-perform the market: they do not have a plan. As the saying goes, "when you fail to plan, you plan to fail." This saying is as true in the stock market as it is in any other aspect of life.
没有计划而试图管理股票组合的缺点非常多,而且形式多样。对每个投资者来说,朋友、股票经纪、市场评论员或与其类似人的建议都会放大本身的恐惧和贪婪。这些影响会导致没有一个经过仔细思考的计划的投资者放弃正在盈利的仓位并且吊死在正在亏损的仓位上。这正是为什么大多数业余投资者跑输大盘:它们没有计划。就像谚语有云:如果你没有做好计划,那么你就计划好了失败。这个谚语在股市中非常正确,就像其在生活中其他方面一样。
With emotions running rampant from a loss or a large gain, it is virtually impossible to make a good decision. This is precisely the point at which most investors fail: They have no preconceived plan for exiting a stock before they buy it. As a result, when they hear a tip or rumor on a stock they get so excited that they forget to ask themselves what they will do if it turns sour, or if it soars, what will be their plan for letting the profit ride? If the investor who doesn't plan ahead also happens to believe some of the myths presented in Chapter 1 then his/her chances of making a good decision are almost nil. If you are a decision-maker of any kind, you no doubt realize that making decisions based on wrong assumptions renders your chances of success to be miniscule. For this reason, the need for an exit plan based on sound theory before a stock purchase cannot be overemphasized. Unfortunately, most investors don't want to think about planning ahead, (especially for adverse possibilities) when they are buying a stock - they put the selling criteria decision off until it is unavoidable, and usually too late.
怀着由于损失或大额收益产生的情绪,要做出正确的决定简直是不可能的,这正是大多数投资者失败的原因:它们在买入股票之前没有预设退出计划。结果是当听到一点小道消息或谣言时,他们变得非常兴奋以致忘记自问如果市场下跌或市场大涨该做什么,如何让利润自行运转。如果投资者没有事先计划而且又碰巧相信第一章中列出的某些谬论,他们他/她做出好的决定的可能性几乎为零。不管你是什么类型的决策者,你会毫无疑问地认识到:在错误的设想基础上做出的决定要成功的机会是非常小的。由于这个原因,在交易之前有一个建立在良好理论基础上的退出计划是说再多也不过分的。不幸的是,大多数投资者在买入股票时不想事先做好计划(特别是为不利的可能性)——他们把卖出决定推后,直到不得不决定,而通常这时又太晚了。
An exit plan must be identified for every investment before the investment is made. This plan should cover all possible outcomes of the trade, both profit and loss.
每个投资者在投资之前都必须有一个退出计划,这个计划要涵盖交易的所有可能性,包括盈利和亏损。
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#日志日期:2007-12-3 星期一(Monday) 晴 送小红花 推荐指数:复制链接 举报
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